Of Long Winters and Crazy Markets

Well, it’s been a long, cold, lonely winter, hasn’t it? If you had told me a year ago what the next twelve months would hold, I would have asked you if your coffee was spiked. I don’t think I have ever in my LIFE been more ready for spring!

First of all, I want to thank all of you who reached out after my mother’s death. The outpouring of support was overwhelming, and my family and I appreciate it more than we could ever possibly express. For those of you who didn’t hear, my beloved mother passed away, suddenly and somewhat tragically, in January. You can see more of the story here. I am determined, in the wake of her death, to advocate for the vulnerable elderly. I don’t know yet what form that will take, but I promise to share it with you when I know more.

So now let’s talk about the market. You may have been hearing that it’s crazy. It IS crazy. I just saw this meme on Facebook, which I didn't write but was happy to share: 

Think of real estate as a game of musical chairs. 

In a buyer’s market, you’ve got ten chairs and only five people playing. 

In a seller’s market, you’ve got six chairs and eight people playing.

In the current market, you’ve got three chairs and 40 people playing, but now the chairs are on fire, and you’re being chased around the room by a scary clown.

That's why you need an experienced real estate agent.

We’ve been in a seller’s market — with limited inventory — for years. But now we’ve reached new inventory lows. A “balanced” market in Denver generally means we have somewhere around 13,000 single family properties for sale at any given time. Last time I checked the MLS, there were just over 1200 single family units for sale. Twelve HUNDRED.

Which basically means that this is a fabulous, awesome, boffo time to sell. You will find lots and lots of buyers competing for your home. And because they want you to like them best, they will do things like offer their highest price, drop appraisal contingencies, and promise not to nit-pick you on inspection. It's really a very satisfying experience.

But what if you want to buy? Well, that depends on a lot of factors. Where do you want to buy? I’m finding competition is less fierce outside of town. What do you want to buy? Condos and townhouses are easier to obtain than the coveted single family home. What is your price range? At the low end, competition is quite stiff. But in general, the higher the price, the less competition. I have a buyer closing in the 700K range next week. Of course, location still matters. Especially in the high-demand central Denver neighborhoods, well-priced 1M+ homes are still easily selling in a weekend.

The good news is that relief seems to be on the way. Many sellers have been reluctant to list in the past year. Who wants a parade of people traipsing through their house in a pandemic? I thought the industry handled itself quite well through all of the COVID craziness, but I understood the hesitancy. But now spring is coming, which always gives us an inventory bump. In addition, more and more people are vaccinated or recovered with antibodies, and Colorado is opening back up. All of which we expect will lead to “seller confidence,” and perhaps the release of more pent-up inventory as people who were delaying moving are now ready to reconsider.

And for those afraid that we are in a bubble: well, as I’ve said many times, I’m not an economist. And my crystal ball is once again in the shop. But I do know that this is not 2008. The fundamentals remain strong. Buyers are coming in with much higher credit scores, and lending standards are more stringent. And Denver remains a highly desirable place to live.

If you’ve been considering selling, call me! There has never been a better time. And if you’re considering buying, call me as well. I’m working with buyers. We’re getting them closed. Let’s talk about your unique situation, and whether you might be positioned to be one of them, especially as inventory increases and market pressure relaxes.

Speaking of “opening up,” I’m SO over the long, cold, quarantined winter. I’m ready for lunches, coffees, dinner and happy hours. Let’s get together!

Happy Spring!!